The Cobra Effect in Swimming: Are We Measuring the Wrong Things?

There’s an old concept known as the Cobra Effect.

The idea is simple: When you reward a specific outcome, people will find a way to produce that outcome whether or not it actually solves the problem.

In the original story, a government tried to reduce cobras by paying people for every dead snake. It worked… at first. Then people started breeding cobras just to kill them for the reward.

The result? More cobras, not fewer.

It’s a strange story but it feels uncomfortably familiar when you look at club swimming today.

What Are We Actually Rewarding?

In USA Swimming, success is often measured by things like:

• Club Excellence rankings

• Virtual Club Championship points

On paper, this makes sense. These are objective, trackable, comparable.

But here’s the problem:

When you reward points, you get point-chasing. Not necessarily better development. Not necessarily better athletes. Not necessarily better experiences. Not necessarily better people.

The questions then become:

• As a club member of USA swimming (your nations governing body) what is the goal?

• If you run a club what are your goals for the program, what is your mission?

• Are you fulfilling that mission?

• Are you contributing to the success of USA Swimming (your nations governing body)?

• Do your metric align?

Who’s actually the best?

Take SwimMAC Carolina, a perennial powerhouse in USA Swimming.

They’ve been the #1 ranked club in the country multiple years in a row based on USA Swimming metrics. By the system’s definition, they are the gold standard.

And to be clear; that level of performance doesn’t happen by accident. It takes organization, talent, and high-level coaching.

But it also raises an important question:

Does being #1 in the metrics mean you’re #1 in developing athletes/ young people? Does it produce high performance? Olympians?

Those aren’t always the same thing.

The Questions We Don’t Ask

We track points down to decimals. We rank clubs nationally. We celebrate medals and records.

But we rarely ask:

• How many athletes leave the team or quit before they reach their full potential?

• How many swimmers actually enjoy their experience once it's over?

• How many stay in the sport after they’re done competing?

• How many go on to swim well in college, and enjoy it?

• How many leave burned out, injured, or disconnected?

• How many build confidence, discipline, and life skills that last beyond the pool?

These are harder to measure.

But they might matter more.

What the Cobra Effect Looks Like in Swimming

When rankings and VCC points become the goal, behaviors start to shift:

• Coaches prioritize swimmers who can score now

• Development, fun, and long-term success are optional

• Training systems favor output over long-term development

• Athletes become numbers, valuable when they produce, replaceable when they don’t

• Early success is rewarded, even if it comes at a long-term cost (Think high volume training and overly outcome focused 14-unders)

Again, this isn’t about one team. It’s about the system.

Because the system is doing exactly what it was designed to do.

Two Different Definitions of Success

There are two common ways to build a program, not the only two, but two paths most teams fall into.

1. Metric-Driven Success

• Focus on rankings, points, and national standing

• Optimize for short-term performance

• Build systems that produce results quickly

2. Development-Driven Success

• Focus on skill, growth, and individual progress

• Prioritize long-term athlete physical and mental health and retention

• Build relationships and trust

• Develop people, not just performers

The challenge is this: Only one of these paths is easy to measure.

So, What Actually Matters?

What if success looked like this instead:

• Community: Swimmers, parents, and coaches growing together

• Athletes who want to come to practice

• Swimmers who stay in the sport for years

• Kids who leave more confident than when they started

• Athletes who continue into college, masters, or coaching

• People who carry discipline and resilience into the rest of their lives

Those outcomes don’t show up in a ranking system.

But they’re real. And they last.

A Better Way to Think About It

This isn’t about tearing down successful programs.

It’s about asking a better question:

What are we trying to produce?

If the answer is:

“Virtual club champions.”

Then the maybe system is working.

But if the answer is:

“Happy developed athletes. Strong people. Lifelong swimmers.”

Then we may need to rethink what we measure and what we reward.

Final Thought

The Cobra Effect doesn’t mean the system is broken.

It means the system is working exactly as designed.

So, the real question isn’t: “Which team is #1?”

It’s: “What does being #1 mean? “#1 in what?” And “Are we measuring the things that actually matter?”